April 21, 2018

United Kingdom inflation unchanged at 3 per cent

14 February 2018, 06:42 | Lionel James

United Kingdom inflation unchanged at 3 per cent

Consumer prices jump higher than expected, roiling Wall Street

The Labor Department's consumer-price index, a measure of what Americans pay for everything from theater tickets to breakfast cereal, rose 0.5% in January after rising a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in December, while so-called core prices - which exclude the volatile food and energy categories - rose 0.3% following a 0.2% gain the month prior.

The figure also fuelled warnings of another rise in interest rates from the Bank of England.

Inflation has been climbing steadily since the beginning of past year but many have predicted it has peaked at around 3%.

"The committee is of the view that the nascent recovery needs to be carefully nurtured and growth put on a sustainably higher path through conducive and stable macro-financial management", the central bank said in its monetary policy statement.

That's why investors early Wednesday will be paying close attention to the release of the January consumer price index (CPI).

Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 74.75 points, or 1.14 percent, on volume of 60,936 contracts.

Aberdeen Standard Investments chief economist Lucy O'Carroll said inflation was broadly in line with expectations and it may have now peaked, as the impact of sterling's post-referendum decline has fallen away.

The consensus estimate for January inflation was 0.3%, so this report could roil the stock and bond markets.

"We have sold a number of flats to those getting on the ladder for the first time".

USA bond markets began the week on the back foot after comments at the weekend by Mick Mulvaney the White House budget director that interest rates could spike as a result of the new budget plans.

Rising wage invoice hits Manchester United earnings
"Because I know Shaw since he arrived in the Premier League with Southampton and I know his potential, his quality". A rising wage bill for players has cut into the latest quarterly profits from Manchester United .

In short, the report should not be taken too seriously. "The BoE's forecasts are based on a smooth Brexit transition, and you would be forgiven for thinking that things might be bumpier, for a while at least".

Ben Brettell, a senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, said that inflation's had now been above target for 12 straight months.

"Our long-held view of higher United Kingdom rates and sterling still stands, but in the short term the politics, stretched market positioning and the state of the global risk environment may provide headwinds against the pound", said Nomura currency strategist Jordan Rochester.

Mr Carney's admission that CPI might tick back higher is a reversal of the earlier position that inflation was likely to have peaked at the end of a year ago, and it can only be the big increases still being seen in input costs that could well be driving that change of tack.

Mr Brettell said it now looks like the next rise "may well happen in May".

"Persistent inflation also has implications for the UK's ongoing cost-of-living squeeze".

"We will be looking for an increase when the ONS reports next week". The rate was expected to fall moderately to 3 percent. The CPI inflation rate for January was 0.5 percent and 2.1 percent for the year, up from 1.9 percent in from initial expectations.

"In our minds, one of the most likely scenarios from here is one of low or mediocre GDP growth but still elevated levels of United Kingdom inflation. Overall, we expect CPI inflation to dip in February-March 2018, before rising in Q1 2018-19", Nayar said.

The slightly higher than expected year-on-year increase in prices, driven by a higher cost for recreational activities, is likely to reinforce concerns that the Bank of England and other central banks will respond to inflationary pressures by dialing back on cheap credit.

"Last week's MPC meeting would suggest another rate rise is just around the corner. Both seem unlikely to us", they continued.

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