Storm Franklin expected to hit Mexico's east coast as hurricane: NHC
10 Августа 2017, 12:45 | Marta Robbins
NOAA calls for an extremely active season ahead; updated forecast
Forecasters increased the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes and said the season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010.
All the available prediction models are pointing to a more active season than they did in May, Bell added, urging people in the region to prepare emergency kits and supplies.
NOAA is a bit more bullish than Colorado State forecasters, who predict this 2017 season will be 5% less active than previous year.
Reuters/Jonathan DrakeA large electronic billboard urges people to evacuate the Charleston and coastal areas before the arrival of Hurricane Matthew, in North Charleston, South Carolina, U.S., October 7, 2016.
The fact that two tropical storms - Bret and Don - already formed east of the Lesser Antilles in the usually-quiet first half of the season is one of several signs that convinced the forecasters to up their prediction.
While the climate center's hurricane forecasters make long-range calls on expected seasonal activity, they do not predict if or where storms might make landfall, Bell said, as that's dependent on shorter-term weather conditions. NOAA is predicting 2 - 5 major hurricanes, which is also an increase from initial estimate of 2 - 4 major hurricanes.
All indications are that Tropical Storm Franklin will continue to organize/strengthen as it moves further west in the southern Gulf of Mexico, but the storm will likely run out of ocean before it becomes a major hurricane. Two of the tropical storms, Cindy in June and Emily in July, struck the United States. That puts the center of Franklin about 140 miles (230 km) north-northeast of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico and about 165 miles (265 km) east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.
Wednesday's update decreases the chance of a near normal season from 35 to 30 percent, and a below normal season from 20 to just 10 percent. "We are now entering the historical peak months of the season".
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